DownSwinging.com

I wouldn’t expect the Yankees to be particularly concerned with the fact that they are 0-7 against the Red Sox. Head-to-head records mean virtually nothing, and New York is just a game out of first place in the toughest division in baseball, which is remarkable considering their slow start. But besides maybe the Sox just being lucky, why have they had so much success against the Yanks? Well, the answer is actually pretty simple, take a look at the chart below showing the Yankees starters’ performance in the seven games they’ve played against the Sox.

As you can see, the Yankees rotation has been far from successful against their rivals from Boston. Combined, the starters have combined for an ERA of 7.47 against the Red Sox, which is not exactly ideal. What makes it worse is the number of innings they’ve pitched, averaging just under four and half innings pitched each start. These problems aren’t necessarily that bad when the Yankees are playing mediocre ballclubs, because they have such tremendous hitting. The Yankees have the best OBP of any major league club, and the second most runs scored next to Tampa Bay. The problem is that when the Yankees face the Red Sox they’re facing a team that’s above average in pitching quality, andexcellent in pitching depth (The Red Sox are currently 12th in team ERA, but I would expect that to go down over time since injuries won’t be as big a factor for them because of their depth). The Red Sox starters have been able to contain the Yankee hitters enough that they can’t compensate for their starter’s poor performance.

What’s worse are the implications for the already weak Yankee bullpen. When New York is taking pitchers out so early in the game, it forces Girardi to overuse his relief pitchers, ultimately something that might hurt them down the stretch. On the one hand, he needs to do it to keep the Yankees in games, but come playoff time (if they make it there) they are going to have some tired arms.

The real worry is that while the Yankees are a good enough ball club to beat sub-par teams, somewhere down the line that’s not going to cut it. If they were in another division, they would still be fine, but seeing how they have to compete with Boston and Tampa, the Yankees are going to have to figure out a way to beat better teams, and the way to do that is to improve their pitching, improve their defense, improve something. Look for the Yankees to try and make an upgrade in the starting rotation, bullpen (Mariano is still Mariano, but he’s an old Mariano), or figure something out defensively (The Yankees will never consider moving Jeter to the outfield, but they should, most advanced defense metrics rank him as the worst-fielding shortstop in the majors).

It’s also worth noting that Sabathia has not pitched against the Red Sox, and will be heading to the hill for New York tonight. Lefties tend not to fare quite as well at Fenway, but the big man has a 3.56 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and is more than capable of holding down the fort.

Despite Sabathia’s relative resurgence, someone in the Yankee organization has got to be concerned about the fact that even if the Yankees can make the playoffs, do they have the pitching to stop a team like Boston in a seven-game series?