DownSwinging.com

Finally, we’re here. One of the most exciting days in baseball: the trading deadline. The deadline is officially today at 4 p.m. so executives will be rapidly shuffling papers and switching between conference calls and by this afternoon some of these deals will be put into place.

I’m going to the start with the Red Sox because they’re involved in all of the blockbusters. At this point, it’s reasonably safe to say that if Roy Halladay is going to be traded, it will be to the Red Sox; if Victor Martinez is going to be to traded, it will be to the Red Sox; and if Adrian Gonzalez gets traded it’s going to be to the Red Sox. The Dodgers and Rangers are still players on the Halladay sweepstakes and the Mets and Rays are technically involved for V-Mart, but basically I think the Red Sox are the frontrunners for all three. But they will only get one of them. And they will get one of them. I will be shocked if the Red Sox don’t nab one of the three, it could happen, but I doubt it.

From what I gather, Adrian Gonzalez is Boston’s first choice. Gonzalez solves the problem shortage now and in the future, and plays an excellent first base. He also will be the hardest to get, but the Red Sox have spent all Wednesday negotiating with the Friars, as well as late Thursday night. But if they don’t get something done, they’ll turn their attention to Victor Martinez and the Indians. The teams are looking to include a third team in the deal, with Clay Buchholz going to the Indians in exchange for Martinez and prospects evening things out across the board with the three teams. As of yet no word on if they’ve found a third team, but things are definitely progressing, so if the Red Sox take this route I think they and the Tribe will get it done. Were the Red Sox to get V-Mart or Gonzalez, they would trade away Adam LaRoche as he would be of no value anymore.

As far as Halladay is concerned, I don’t think it’s going to happen. The Jays and every other team are at an impasse. As far as I can tell, the Red Sox made the best offer, and I’ve already explained why I think the Jays should ignore the division-rival aspect. In order to get it done, I think the Jays would have to approach the Red Sox or any other team and accept a previous offer or make a less demanding one. That all being said, the Rangers were talking to the Jays yesterday, though nothing came from it as far as we know.

Alright let’s move on to others. There is talk that if the Red Sox do get Adrian Gonzalez, they may take Heath Bell along too if they are willing to include Daniel Bard. Not sure if they’ll do that. The Angels and Marlins are the main suitors for Bell, though it’s not clear that he will necessarily be traded. The Padres made an offer to the Marlins yesterday but it was rejected.

Yesterday the Cubs traded prospects to receive Tom Gorzelanny and Tom Grabow from the Pirates. Just keeps the Bucs fire sale rollin’.

The Twins and A’s are getting closer to a deal for Orlando Cabrera it seems. No specifics have been released, but apparently progress is being made.

The Indians are looking to move Carl Pavano, and it may be to the one place he actually suceeded: Florida. If the Marlins aren’t going to get Heath Bell, they might get Pavano if they’re set on being buyers.

Update: Just now as I’m writing this, the Red Sox said they will be discussing Halladay with the Blue Jays this morning, so maybe it isn’t completely dead. Don’t know if the Sox would rather get Gonzalez or Halladay.