DownSwinging.com

Yesterday, Blue Jays G.M. J.P. Ricciardi just floated out the idea that his office will be listening to offers for their ace, Roy Halladay. Halladay, I need not tell you, is a star, and is extra valuable just because of the pure consistency that he has brought to the mound, despite the fact that the Jays haven’t really been contenders for a long time. Halladay is set to receive around $7 million more for this year, and $15.75 million for 2010, when his contract runs out. Halladay also has a full no-trade contract.

So first, let’s take a look at things from the Jays’ perspective. Number one, they haven’t committed to anything, so it’s not like Halladay is walking out the door. Rather, and quite wisely, Ricciardi is saying its a possibility they will trade him, and they want to see what they might get in return. But what really is happening here is that the team is at a bit of a crossroads, and whatever decision they make now is going to change things in the future. If they do decide to let go of Halladay, at the minimum what they are saying is that the team is surrendering on winning on ‘09 and ‘10 already, basically. If they thought they could win in 2010, they would keep Halladay, but that is going to be a long shot in the AL East, a real long shot. But what they could accomplish after that could be a lot. Say they pick up a few prime (not very top-tier, but multiple second-tier guys that will be solid ballplayers) prospects in return for Halladay. If they trade Rios, too, they’ll get even more. They’ll be in full force in two years, and will combine well with the young Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, etc. Also, hopefully for the Jays, some of the young pitching, (i.e. Tallet, Cecil) pans out. At that point, the team could be dangerous. The only downside to that plan is that is right about the time that Baltimore is ready to breakout as well, which means we could very well see five strong ballclubs in the AL East in 2010.

Now on the other hand, Ricciardi might think that he wants to stick with Halladay, both because they have a shot at winning next year, and because they probably can rule out signing him as a free agent after 2010 if they deal him now. If they hang onto him, he might want to stick in Toronto, especially if they’re going to be a winning ballclub. Now I personally wouldn’t want to hedge my bets on what would be a 34-year old pitcher at that point, but it might come down to Ricciardi simply not getting the right offer.

On the flip side, who might interested in Halladay’s services for the next year and a half? Well, everyone. But it’s not realistic for everyone. Actually, what we’re probably going to find is that the team’s that were in the Jake Peavy hunt earlier this year are the same teams who are capable of nabbing Halladay. These are winning teams with something in the farm system that also have money to spend. Both Chicago teams fit the bill, count them in. So do the Phillies. And the Angels. And the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets. Now to narrow it down.

The press has been saying that the Yankees will not be getting Halladay, though I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang around the talks. The Jays would prefer not to send him to their own division, but I don’t know if that’s such a big deal, because they are already giving up on the time when Halladay is under contract for, and while he may stay longer, that’s a ways away. So I’m going to keep the Red Sox as a possible team. The Cubs situation depends on how quickly they can figure out their new ownership deal, and whether Jim Hendry can spend money, which he probably won’t be able to, so I don’t know if that’s likely. I don’t know if Halladay would approve a deal to the south-side, so that puts the White Sox chances a little lower. Same for LA, but I think he would probably go there, and the Angels are good. I would bet they will pursue him heavily. Philadelphia is being called the favorite, and rightfully so, they have the prospects and the money, so don’t be surprised if you see a last-minute deal firing Halladay off to Philly before the month is up, although I don’t think the Halos will go down without a fight.