DownSwinging.com

As the July 31 trading deadline quickly approaches, momentum for deals is building, preparing for the inevitable flurry of trades that get pulled off just before midnight on the last day. While it seems now like every possible avenue is falling through for some teams, almost always teams figure something out before the deadline because it’s in all parties interests. There are definitely domino effects, as the rumor mill creates a complex map of all of the teams, and once one piece falls, others will follow.

Therefore, it’s always best to start at the top, and that, of course, means Roy Halladay. J.P. Ricciardi said today that the likelihood of a deal has moved to “very slim.” Still interested teams are the Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox. The holdup has been that the team most capable and needing of a deal, the Phillies, rejected the Blue Jays original offer which included Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ, and then had their counter-offer (Happ plus four prospects not named Drabek) rejected as well, putting the parties at odds. The Rangers are still interested but have financial issues to worry about if they are going to get Halladay. If the Yankees want to make a deal they can try the route of taking on bad contracts (Vernon Wells) and Halladay instead of giving up top prospects, because they don’t have any really. They have said they will part with Joba Chamberlain, but not Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. If I’m the Jays, I forget about the division rivalry and send him to the Yanks, and then ship off Rolen, Scutaro and Rios if you can.

If Halladay is out of the picture, the focus turns to other pitchers on the market. The next-best being Cliff Lee. The Red Sox and Yankees don’t really need to overpay for Lee, but the Phillies and Rangers have said they are interested if they can’t get Halladay, and the Dodgers are increasingly interested since they feel like a Halladay deal isn’t going to happen. Interestingly, the Rays seem to be the biggest players for Lee, which is somewhat surprising considering how money-concious they are. It would put them in a better place to fight off either the Red Sox or Yankees for a playoff spot. Apparently, if a Rays deal for Lee is pulled off, it would be a three-way deal involving the Mariners.

The Mariners have their own players they may be selling in Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn. Bedard has drawn interest from the Phillies, probably more so than their interest in Lee. Obviously the cost for him has gone down. Bedard is an effective when he wants to be (it’s a contract year, so let’s say that’s a yes) and when he’s healthy. He conveniently enough just landed himself on the DL, bringing his value down. But if the M’s are still willing to deal him, he might be a lower-cost alternative that could pay off. Washburn has had a good season and the Brewers may be after him, as are the Yankees. I could see the Rangers and Rays going for him as well if they can’t land a bigger fish.

The Red Sox had two deals rejected for Victor Martinez. First was basically a straight-up deal for Clay Buchholz and the second was for Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden. I really don’t understand this. It doesn’t really seem like a great idea to give up such good prospects for a guy like Martinez who is iffy health-wise, but even if you’re going to, the Adam LaRoche deal makes no sense then. Furthermore, why would the Indians ever say no to either of these deals? They’re getting great prospects, with Buchholz being the Red Sox top prospect (considering Lars Anderson’s recent struggles). The Red Sox, among other teams, have also indicated an interest in Padres first basemen Adrian Gonzalez but it doesn’t look promising. Again, why get LaRoche if you want a bigger first basemen bat?

Lastly, the Twins are almost definitely going to make a deal for a new shortstop, as Nick Punto isn’t going to cut it. A’s shortstop Orlando Cabrera and Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson seem to be the top candidates. Either one would make sense. Marco Scutaro of the Blue Jays is also an option.