DownSwinging.com

While I do tend to keep my opinions on this site relatively objective, it’s no secret that I’m a diehard Red Sox fan. That being said, I don’t always have the most positive views on the Red Sox (or its fanbase) and one particularly player has had me quite irked this whole season. Mr. Jonathan Papelbon arrived on the Red Sox scene a few years ago amid much fanfare, and quickly became one of the most dominant closers in baseball.

But this season, it just hasn’t been the same. Maybe it’s the mere fact that Papelbon insists on waiting a good 45 seconds between pitches, which is particularly frustrating when batters foul off five or six fairly regularly. But even setting aside the “Papelbon Lag Time,” I never quite feel comfortable when Pap is on the mound. I mean the guy has a 1.94 ERA and is 32/35 in save opportunities so clearly he is succeding, but just when I watch him it always seems like he’s making it close by putting guys aboard or narrowly escapes homeruns that die on the warning track. And sure enough, when I looked at his peripherals, it seemed to fit. Pap has a 1.29 WHIP, which is quite a bit higher than what you might expect. He also has .41 GB/FB ratio, meaning that over twice as many balls that are hit off him end up in the air…not where you want them, especially if they’re headed for left field at Fenway.

While I lack the data to figure out where those fly balls are going I have seen quite a few travel right up against the wall. And the way I see it, I don’t really see why they wouldn’t. Papelbon doesn’t throw that hard. He tops out at 97 or 98, but sometimes is down around the 95 region, and the fact is that his fastballs are straight. And we’re talking about major league hitters. It also comes down to pitch selection. He pounds the strike-zone with fastballs (in theory) but sooner or later you have to mix it up. And the fact that I know that each and every time Papelbon has someone 0-2 he will go to the high fastball is not a good thing. He has to utilize his splitter more or at the very least throw in some more changeups. Hitters may have just missed so far this year, but major league hitters don’t miss flat fastballs for very long.