DownSwinging.com

I write this while I watch the one-game play-in match between the Tigers and the Twins at the Metrodome. Magglio Ordonez just tied the game with a line drive home run off of Guerrier, the Twins 8th inning set up man. Ron Gardenhire’s plan (a conventional one) was to have Guerrier pitch the eight inning, setting up Joe Nathan, the twins All-Star closer to seal the deal in the ninth. Twenty-nine other major league managers would have done exactly the same thing. And I believe all of them to be wrong.

Gurrier came into the eighth inning to face the heart of the Tigers order; Ordoñez, Cabrera, and Guillen, arguably one of the better 3-4-5 combinations in the majors over the past few years. Assuming that Guerrier sits these three down in order that would leave Nathan with the bottom of the Tigers order (6-7-8) to finish the game. Now, I understand that every out, especially when playing the Tigers is a tough out, but wouldn’t it make much more sense to pitch Nathan, the Twins best reliever, against Ordoñez, Cabrera, and Guillen and then let Guerrier face the bottom of the order consisting of Raburn, Inge, and Laird (a combined .248 batting average)? Doesn’t that just make sense?

In the NFL you match your best corner with the opposing team’s best receiver. But in baseball the best reliever is saved for the ninth inning—always. Now I know “the final three outs are different from the other twenty-four” and I think that there is some truth in that. But come on, tell me how your chances aren’t increased by allowing Nathan to face three of the better hitters in the American League over the past five years and have Guerrier face the still tough, but not as dangerous bottom of the order. And hey, you never know, Nathan may get three quick outs and have enough left in him to complete a two inning save. Somewhere I hope managers around the league are thinking the same. But I doubt it.