DownSwinging.com

Anything can happen in the playoffs. Really, anything can. That’s why getting to the playoffs is such a big deal, because teams that are there are in truth very close to a World Series championship, regardless of the number of wins they had in the regular season. Look at the ‘06 Cardinals, 83 wins, World Series champions. So it’s tough to really say one team is definitively going to beat another. But I’m going to throw that out the window right now.

Here’s what I don’t want to happen: A Yankees/Dodgers World Series. Sure the Joe Torre storyline would be nice for the media, but I just don’t see it panning out into a good series, which is all I can hope for now that my team has been eliminated (well, that and the Yankees not losing, so this would really be a double whammy).

The Yankees have an unbelievable lineup. It’s an All-Star team, it really is. And they’ve been that way pretty much this entire decade, but this year they have the pitching to back it up, and not just in the rotation. So while teams with a good offense might be able to pick up a few runs here and there, they can’t count on the run support they relied on throughout the regular season. So the pressure switches to the pitcher. In order to beat the Yankees (well, beat them four times at least) you have to be able to shutdown that offense, and while there are no pitchers in the postseason (or the world) that can definitively do that, so you have to rely on guys that have shutdown potential and that’s really all you can ask for. And for me, the Dodgers really only have one player that fits the bill: Clayton Kershaw. He struggled last night, but we all have seen his stuff when he is on and it could be enough to stifle the Yankees. The problem for the Dodgers is, he probably is their only pitcher who can do that to the Yankees for a good six or seven innings. Sure, Randy Wolf has been good, but his start in the NLDS wasn’t encouraging, and his .256 BABIP in the regular season, compared to his .290 career average, suggests his 3.23 ERA might have been a bit flukey (I’m not a huge fan of determining “luck” based on BABIP, as I’ve written before, but it’s still a factor).

The Phillies are a different story. We all know Cliff Lee has experience being just downright filthy in both the American and National league, so we’ll count him in. Similarly, Cole Hamels in the 2008 playoffs has proven himself, so while I wouldn’t necessarily mark him down as the best starter in the playoffs, he could be unbelievable. And let’s not forget Pedro Martinez. He is one of the absolute best pitchers in our generation, and he has had success pitching without his old velocity.

I know, I know, the Yankees haven’t even played a game against the Angels. And the Angels are good, no question. Jered Weaver and John Lackey fit the type I’m talking about. But for whatever reason, I’ve got more faith in the Phillies, though in truth I couldn’t tell you why. Despite all of this, I think the Yankees have the odds stacked in their favor, and that’s all you can hope for at this point.

NLCS: Phillies in 6

ALCS: Yankees in 6

World Series: Yankees in 6