If anything these past few days have reaffirmed what I wrote a few days ago–If someone is going to beat the Yankees, it’s going to be the Phillies. The Yankees handedly won game 1, but games 2 and 3 were extra-inning affairs that could have gone both ways, and that’s exactly what the Angels need. Think about if the Angels hadn’t made a few clueless errors in this series. They could easily be up 2-1 right now. Unfortunately, despite their win it seems to me it will probably be too little, too late. Facing C.C. Sabathia is not the sort of pitcher they want to face. You never know, but I think they said it right on Baseball Tonight recently (it was either Fernando Vina or Buster Olney) who said the Angels just seem a little bit intimitaded of the Yankees. A little scared. They need to play the same way they did during the season to continue their success now.

But I’ll tell you who won’t be scared of the Yankees: The Phillies. The Phils have been there before, last year in fact, but they still won’t be favorites in a Phillies-Yankees World Series. They have the Lee and Hamels and Martinez (and Happ too), and they have the lineup to match it. But they also have grit, and they showed that tonight. Any team that’s going to win a World Series needs a bit of that magic and fire, and no doubt the Phillies have got it. So while I wouldn’t favor the Phils heading into the Bronx, I certainly wouldn’t count on them backing down.

Here’s what I don’t want to happen: A Yankees/Dodgers World Series. Sure the Joe Torre storyline would be nice for the media, but I just don’t see it panning out into a good series, which is all I can hope for now that my team has been eliminated (well, that and the Yankees not losing, so this would really be a double whammy).

The Yankees have an unbelievable lineup. It’s an All-Star team, it really is. And they’ve been that way pretty much this entire decade, but this year they have the pitching to back it up, and not just in the rotation. So while teams with a good offense might be able to pick up a few runs here and there, they can’t count on the run support they relied on throughout the regular season. So the pressure switches to the pitcher. In order to beat the Yankees (well, beat them four times at least) you have to be able to shutdown that offense, and while there are no pitchers in the postseason (or the world) that can definitively do that, so you have to rely on guys that have shutdown potential and that’s really all you can ask for. And for me, the Dodgers really only have one player that fits the bill: Clayton Kershaw. He struggled last night, but we all have seen his stuff when he is on and it could be enough to stifle the Yankees. The problem for the Dodgers is, he probably is their only pitcher who can do that to the Yankees for a good six or seven innings. Sure, Randy Wolf has been good, but his start in the NLDS wasn’t encouraging, and his .256 BABIP in the regular season, compared to his .290 career average, suggests his 3.23 ERA might have been a bit flukey (I’m not a huge fan of determining “luck” based on BABIP, as I’ve written before, but it’s still a factor).

The Phillies are a different story. We all know Cliff Lee has experience being just downright filthy in both the American and National league, so we’ll count him in. Similarly, Cole Hamels in the 2008 playoffs has proven himself, so while I wouldn’t necessarily mark him down as the best starter in the playoffs, he could be unbelievable. And let’s not forget Pedro Martinez. He is one of the absolute best pitchers in our generation, and he has had success pitching without his old velocity.

I know, I know, the Yankees haven’t even played a game against the Angels. And the Angels are good, no question. Jered Weaver and John Lackey fit the type I’m talking about. But for whatever reason, I’ve got more faith in the Phillies, though in truth I couldn’t tell you why. Despite all of this, I think the Yankees have the odds stacked in their favor, and that’s all you can hope for at this point.

NLCS: Phillies in 6

ALCS: Yankees in 6

World Series: Yankees in 6

1. The Red Sox should never get knocked out of the playoffs before the ALCS. It’s just bad for baseball.

2. Wade Phillips will not be a head coach in the NFL next season unless he can orchestrate a Tom Coughlin like turn around. Thanks to Miles Austin and Jay Ratliff, that might still be possible.

3. No team should ever win a game when their quarterback (Derek Anderson) has a 15.1 passer rating. Derek Anderson was so bad, he had nearly as many completions to the opposite team as he did his own (2 completions, 1 interception).

4. If the NHL is able to successfully thwart Jim Balsillie from buying the Minnesota Wild, the NFL should be able to stop Rush Limbaugh from buying the Rams… Right?

5. Fantasy Football stops being fun when you’re 4-0 but your team underperforms so woefully that you lose to an opposing team that didn’t start its quarterback, number one wide receiver, tight end, and opposing defense. I started Willis McGahee, Calvin Johnson, John Carlson, and Neil Rackers who combined for an incredulous 7 points between them. I also sat Roddy White against the 49ers in favor of Steve Smith with a matchup against the Raiders. Three points would have won me the week.

We all have to come to terms with the fact that:

1. Tim Tebow is the poster boy of sports in America. Move aside Lebron and Shawn Johnson, Brett Favre and yes, even you Michelle Wie, America only cares about Tim Tebow and how many chapters of a book he can read before his headaches set in. I cannot remember the last time media covered the health of a collegiate athlete as actively as they have pursued the status of Tim Tebow. And while reporters critiqued Tebow’s every breath, a much better quarterback named Sam Bradford returned to the football field as well. And I don’t buy this Florida-LSU national championship showdown either. The Tigers offense isn’t BCS bowl worthy and this definitely won’t be their last SEC loss….
Oh and this just in, Barack Obama’s main competition for the Nobel Peace Prize? Yup, you know it. Tim Tebow.

2. The Broncos are better than we thought they were. Nobody wants to jump onto the Kyle Orton bandwagon but it’s time to face the facts; they’re 5-0, allow an average of 8.3 points a game for opposing offenses this season and have wins against the Patriots and Bengals–a Cincinnati team that would be undefeated themselves if Brandon Stokely hadn’t plucked Kyle Orton’s batted ball out of the air and raced 87 yards for a game-winning touchdown.

3. The Cowboys are just really mediocre. Miles Austin bailed out Tony Romo and the rest of his teammates by almost single-handedly winning the game against the Chiefs on Sunday. Don’t be fooled by Tony Romo’s 300 yards of passing either. 250 of them were to Miles Austin and almost all of those yards came after the catch.

4. J.P. Losman will lead the Las Vegas Locomotives to the UFL championship this year. After watching a gritty come from behind win to beat his California Redwoods, coach Denny Green said of Losman and the Locomotives, “They are who we thought they were!” Just kidding. He did however say, while analyzing his ground game, “We were really chasing the rabbit into the rabit hole in the second half.”
I don’t know which is more comical, Dennis Green coaching a team called the Redwoods or JP Losman getting his first UFL win while teams in the NFL with quarterbacks named Jamarcus Russell, Marc Bulger, and Kyle Boller have one win between them.

5. It’s time to usher in the Vince Young era in Tennessee. With all due respect to Kerry Collins, there is simply no way the Titans will contend with him behind center. Jeff Fisher has to realize that he’s playing in the AFC and that, even if he won the remaining 11 games on his schedule he still might not make the playoffs (as the Patriots learned last year). If this was the NFC it would be a different story, but the Titans are now all but done. If Jeff Fisher needs more motivation, all he has to do is look into the stands where his fan base is begging the organization to make a change. And why not just run straight wild cat formation the rest of the year with Young and Lendale White in the shotgun and Chris Johnson running the motion route from the wide position? The Titans could be the first team ever to rush for 3,000 yards and it would probably sell tickets.

6. Chad Pennington is probably done in Miami. Out with the old Chad and in with the new. If you missed Monday Night’s game, Chad Henne did an excellent job managing the Dolphins offense. Henne however, displayed not only the ability to spread the ball across the field and hit open receivers for first downs, but also the strength to stretch the middle of the field, as evident on Ted Ginn Jr.’s 53 yard touchdown catch. Most impressive however, was that Henne led three come from behind drives during the fourth quarter against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
6.a. If in fact Chad Pennington’s days as a Dolphin are over, is it merely setting the two-time Comeback Player of the Year Award to win it for the third time?

Final Thoughts About the Weekend:
Football reigns supreme in America right now. For the most part each individual game in the Division Series was interesting, but the Series themselves were all short without much major drama. Alex Rodriguez has quieted his critics who have termed him “un-clutch” in the past for now, but he better realize that Yankees fans equate performance in the ALDS roughly with that of the regular season. With expectations in New York as high as they are right now, the only way A-Rod can permanently quiet his critics is by leading the Yankees to a World Series. I’m much more excited by the second round matchups in the MLB playoffs and especially a potential showdown between Joe Torre and his former team. While things in baseball have been going more or less as predicted (all four favorites winning short series’) both the NFL and College football have had their share of surprises and great matchups. The week ahead features more of the same for football fans and the start of two potentially great series in baseball. Early indications all point towards a great week of sports ahead.

The Yankees announced today that they plan on going with a three-man rotation for the ALCS, hoping to avoid starting Joba Chamberlain and Chad Gaudin. They can pull off the rotation with exactly one start coming from a pitcher on short-rest—Game 4 with Sabathia pitching. The reason they can do this is the inexplicable day off that happens after game 4, meaning that Burnett will go on full rest in game 5, and with the travel day after that Pettitte can pitch game 6 on full rest and Sabathia again on full rest for game 7. I’m not hating on the Yankees here—it’s exactly what I would do if I was them, but it isn’t what should be happening.

The regular season, something that I like to emphasize as much as possible, is played with a five-man rotation. Understandably due to the short and irregular nature of the playoffs, you only need four starting pitchers. But with the added day off you really only need three. And that shouldn’t be the case. The playoffs should test a team’s pitching depth, not just their ace. If that extra day off was taken away, everyone’s second start (and third for Sabathia) would be on short rest, which would be perfectly acceptable, though a much harder decision for a manager to make than the one Girardi has to make now.

Anyway, the point I’m trying to make here is that if the Cardinals and Red Sox can win their game 3 matchups, they have a better than average chance at staging a comeback; “Better than average” just seemed to long a phrase to put in a headline.

The reason for this assertion is that while both teams’ offenses have struggled, their top-two arms have been and are fantastic, and that is an incredible resource to have. Even though the No. 1 starter would be going on short rest, any team that gets to start Chris Carpenter or Jon Lester is at a distinct advantage. And once the series is evened-up, anything can happen. And anything can especially happen when Adam Wainwright or Josh Beckett is on the hill.

The Cardinals are certainly in a better spot than the Red Sox, because the Dodgers really don’t have a comparable ace to match Carpenter or Wainwright, so if they can squeeze through the Pineiro game I like their odds. The Red Sox have a tougher road. Jon Lackey will at least start one of the games, and depending on what Mike Sciosia wants to do, either Ervin Santana or Jered Weaver will be starting the other. The Red Sox also have a tougher task because Scott Kazmir, a Red Sox killer, is starting game 3 against Clay Buchholz, who has pitched very poorly his last two starts after a number of very impressive ones.

Offense is going to be the key for both teams in game 3. Their lineups are going to have to wakeup from their daze (and even though Matt Holliday has been hitting, he’s going to have to make up for his costly error with his bat) and win a ballgame for their pitchers.

If the Cards win game 3, I give them a 50/50 shot at the series. If the Red Sox win game 3, its more like a 33/67 scenario, but it’s been done before…

Gurrier came into the eighth inning to face the heart of the Tigers order; Ordoñez, Cabrera, and Guillen, arguably one of the better 3-4-5 combinations in the majors over the past few years. Assuming that Guerrier sits these three down in order that would leave Nathan with the bottom of the Tigers order (6-7-8) to finish the game. Now, I understand that every out, especially when playing the Tigers is a tough out, but wouldn’t it make much more sense to pitch Nathan, the Twins best reliever, against Ordoñez, Cabrera, and Guillen and then let Guerrier face the bottom of the order consisting of Raburn, Inge, and Laird (a combined .248 batting average)? Doesn’t that just make sense?

In the NFL you match your best corner with the opposing team’s best receiver. But in baseball the best reliever is saved for the ninth inning—always. Now I know “the final three outs are different from the other twenty-four” and I think that there is some truth in that. But come on, tell me how your chances aren’t increased by allowing Nathan to face three of the better hitters in the American League over the past five years and have Guerrier face the still tough, but not as dangerous bottom of the order. And hey, you never know, Nathan may get three quick outs and have enough left in him to complete a two inning save. Somewhere I hope managers around the league are thinking the same. But I doubt it.

I’m not really going to get into the domestic violence portion of this story, because we all know that’s a no-go, so just assume I’ve already bashed him for that.

But what the hell was Cabrera doing going out and getting wasted before one of the Tigers’ most important games of the season? I understand that ballplayers have lives, and after games sometimes they go out and have some beers. That’s fine. But 5 a.m.? On a day when your team is in a near must-win situation? Cabrera had to be picked up at 7:30 a.m. at the police station by the Tigers GM, and just 12 hours later began a game in which he went 0-4. Had the Tigers won that game, they wouldn’t be facing a one-game playoff tonight in Minnesota, with reduced playoff odds down to 43.2 percent, which is terrible considering that on Friday they were up around the 95 percent mark.

Obviously, the Cabrera can’t be blamed for everything, the Tigers really collapsed, and are a much better team than the Twins. But this type of behavior should not be tolerated. Now I know this sort of thing isn’t going to happen, but Cabrera should be suspended by the Tigers. If I was a Tigers fan, no way would I want him not playing tonight so I can’t blam eJim Leyland for not doing anything, but as an objective observer, this shouldn’t be going on. And while I know a game in April is worth the same as a game in September, he knew the stakes of his games on Saturday and Sunday, and has a responsibility as a contracted player to be at his best for those games especially. Frankly, he should want to win bad enough that he wouldn’t want to go out the night before.

Even though I want the Twins to win anyway as the underdog (even though it would mean I would miss out on another prediction), Cabrera has only confirmed this feeling. Hopefully, Cabrera gets booed at the Mall of America Field at the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome.

This is just one season where there has been little pennant race action, and in most others, it comes down to the wire in multiple division. Overreacting to one year that is basically an anomaly is bad thinking, and seems particularly strange for someone like Gammons who has been around so long.

No, what is more important is maintaining the integrity and meaning of the regular season. It’s a concept that is completely lost on those who follow the NBA or NHL, because such a high percentage of their teams make the playoffs. While those sports complain about baseball’s long schedule, at least baseball actually plays a season that matters. Might as well give all the good teams a bye in the NBA for the regular season, and make the middle eight or so battle it out to see who can be eliminated in the first round anyway.

Baseball is so unpredictible, you want it to be hard to make the playoffs. Very hard. And that’s how it is. And that’s how it should be.

In short, Piecoro suggests the Diamondbacks offer Webb a restructured 2-year deal where Webb makes $6.5 million guaranteed plus incentives the first year, and $3 million guaranteed the second year with incentives (from innings pitched) that could bump it up much higher.

It sounds like a good plan for the Diamondbacks, but there is no way Webb would take this deal if his main criteria is money. If Webb were to hit the free agent market, the immediate comparison that sprung to my mind (as well as Piecoro’s) is John Smoltz, who signed with the Red Sox for $5.5 million after undergoing surgery, much-like Webb. Therefore, Piecoro reasoned that Webb would figure he could not get more than $6.5 million which would equate to his guaranteed salary (because if he isn’t given the option, he gets $2 million regardless). But there is one key point here that went missing: Brandon Webb is way better than John Smoltz. Brandon Webb is only 30 years old! He could easily have three more years of being a top-10 pitcher left in him, no question about it. And teams like the Red Sox and Yankees are the precisely the reason why he could get big money now, even though he is hurt. They would love to pay him $8-9 million guaranteed over three years at least for his services because the dividends could be so great.

So while keeping Webb in Phoenix may seem ideal, the reality is that he will probably shake his head to any sort of extension unless it’s going to include the big bucks. That doesn’t meant the Diamondbacks won’t pick up his option, they may well do that, though if Webb seems set on money, it might be a very risky move that could see him sail away following next season.

For the first time in my life, I got to be a part of those drunk people at a baseball game. And it was glorious.

Highlights included one friend challenging the Sea Dogs mascot to a dance-off, and with half the stadium (around 8,000 people at the game) watching, a four-round show between the two ensued, good enough to make the judges on “America’s Best Dance Crew” proud. Ultimately the giant Sea Dog won the contest, largely due to his ability to make splits look awesome in his ridiculous costume. Later on in the night, as several of us were naturally heckling the third base coach (Hey 24, why do you even need cleats?) one local Mainer grew a little tired of our endless chirping (the rest of the crowd was totally loving it) and told us, in slightly coarser language, “to please lower our voices.” Instead of hmm, obliging, one of our most pacifistic friends was not having any of it, and went toe-to-toe with the big man, to the bemusement of the rest of us.

Mostly, however, it was a good time because of the whole atmosphere of minor league baseball. For those of you who don’t know, Portland is a gorgeous, artsy, small city in southern Maine. The Sea Dogs are the Red Sox AA affiliate, a team that recently featured Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden and Jed Lowrie. Last night we were only treated to seeing Lars Anderson, even though Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon’s younger brother were on the roster. By my count, by the way, Anderson walked at least 19 times.

Regardless of the lack of near-Major League ready talent at the game, it was quite the occasion all-around. I did have one complaint however, and a lesson learned. Some of my less than enthusiastic friends decided that after 10 innings of a 2-2 game it was time to leave. Outnumbered (and because the birthday boy wanted to go) I obliged, but I will be sure to let them each know that the Sea Dogs won with a walk-off home run in the 14th inning, you could say leaving was a bit of a mistake. Now that’s the understatement of the century.