DownSwinging.com

We’re not even a third of the way through the baseball season and we can already tell there are going to be some great divisional races down the road. The over-publicized AL East race is now back to the expected Red Sox, Yankees and Rays after the eventual Toronto plunge that has left the team and its fans in disarray. However, the division I want to focus on is actually in the Senior Circuit: the NL Central.

Perennially, the only six-team (five if you discount the Pirates) division in baseball provides a tight race in September. This year will be no different. 50 games in, it’s surprisingly the Cubs who find themselves in fourth place in this four team race between Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinatti and Chicago. Really, it’s anyone’s guess at this point, but I’ll try to break it down.

If there’s a team to eliminate here, it’s the Reds. I love the story of the youth movement taking over the Reds, with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce leading the way, but I think the lack of experience may hurt them down the road and Brandon Phillips is a little out of place in the clean-up spot. More importantly, I doubt the Reds can hold up the team 3.96 ERA its carrying right now. Cueto is sporting a mid-2 ERA at this point, which I am skeptical of, and while I like Aaron Harang, his ERA too should rise by maybe four tenths or a half point by season’s end. And even if everything else was working, we can always count on Dusty Baker to mismanage the bullpen. Earlier this week, Baker decided to throw Aaron Harang back out to the hill to pitch to one batter after a 2-hour delay just so he could qualify for the win. Good for my fantasy team, but not good for an arm.

That still leaves three teams, though I believe two of them will make the playoffs. However, I think the team left out is Chicago, despite being division favorites heading into the season. They’ve lost Aramis Ramirez for an indefinite period of time, which is not a good thing. Also, all of the complaints with umpires combined with the ownership questions have left the team in turmoil, which certainly doesn’t help a team that already is feeling the pressure. Ultimately, I see the Cubs trying to pull themselves together but falling just short.

Milwaukee, my pick to win the wild card, is being lead by Yovani Gallardo, who is now showing the greatness that he will exude for sometime. They have the core offensive ability from Hart, Braun and Fielder. In order to keep the momentum down the stretch, I would expect them to make at least one addition to either the offense or pitching, and I am making the assumption they will do so in picking them over Chicago. Even though I haven’t heard anything regarding this, I wouldn’t be surprised if they made an attempt to take advantage of Boston’s pitching surplus and trying to nab Brad Penny.

Lastly, my pick to win the division: St. Louis. Even with injuries to Chris Carpenter and Ryan Ludwick, this team is tied for the top spot in the division. Now that Carpenter’s back and pitching like his Cy Young-self, and with Ludwick back soon, this team can surprise everyone again and finish in first place in the NL Central come the end of September.

Update: I looked around for similar stories on the web to see what other people thought. I only found this one, which also has the Cards on top, though it has the Cubs at No. 2.