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	<title>DownSwinging.com &#187; Jeff Francouer</title>
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		<title>Mets Play the Odds With Francouer</title>
		<link>http://www.downswinging.com/wordpress/2009/07/mets-play-the-odds-with-francouer/</link>
		<comments>http://www.downswinging.com/wordpress/2009/07/mets-play-the-odds-with-francouer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 19:42:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Seth Walder</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Atlanta Braves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Francouer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Mets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Church]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.downswinging.com/wordpress/?p=1045</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Friday, the Mets and Braves made a one-for-one outfielder swap with Ryan Church and Jeff Francouer. On the whole, the deal is basically being characterized as one of those &#8220;change of scenery&#8221; deals, guys who probably could perform better than they are doing right now. No doubt, this was probably a good move for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://nbcsportsmedia3.msnbc.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/040708/070408_braves_vmed_2p.widec.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-1046" title="070408_braves_vmed_2p.widec" src="http://www.downswinging.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/070408_braves_vmed_2p.widec-214x300.jpg" alt="070408_braves_vmed_2p.widec" width="214" height="300" /></a>On Friday, the Mets and Braves made a one-for-one outfielder swap with Ryan Church and Jeff Francouer. On the whole, the deal is basically being characterized as one of those &#8220;change of scenery&#8221; deals, guys who probably could perform better than they are doing right now. No doubt, this was probably a good move for both teams, but from the way I see it, Omar Minaya and the Mets are the winners here.</p>
<p>First, it is important to note that the Mets received cash in the deal, roughly $270,000 so the difference in the two player&#8217;s salaries is a non-factor. But what I see in this trade is a change of scenery for one player, Francouer, and then just moving a mediocre player in Ryan Church. Church isn&#8217;t a bad player by any means, but he&#8217;s 30-years old, so its not like he is going to start hitting his stride anytime soon. If you start Church everyday, you&#8217;re going to get a .270 hitter who hits 12-15 HRs. Fine, but not exactly a major contributor to a playoff contending team, and he wasn&#8217;t necessarily a key part to the Mets lineup.</p>
<p>On the other hand, we have the struggling Jeff Francouer. Through 82 games this season, Francouer is batting .250 with 5 HRs and is walking at an extremely poor 3% rate (roughly). He&#8217;s slugging just .352, and he is supposed to be a power hitter.<span id="more-1045"></span> No doubt, Francouer is having a rough time. But Francouer also has shown flashes of brilliance during his young career, hitting 29 homers in in his 2006 campaign at the age of 22. Francouer has always been seen as a guy with power, but one that will unquestionably strike out a lot. But that doesn&#8217;t mean that at his current age that he is done, or anything close to it. In trading for Francouer, the Mets picked up a high-upside guy. Granted, he could crash and burn, but the high power, high K rate formula does work from time to time, just take a look at Ryan Howard.</p>
<p>Really, this deal was about risk. The Braves picked up a basically a no-risk player and know exactly what they&#8217;re getting out of him. Considering the Braves are trying to figure out if they want to make a run, and don&#8217;t want Francouer to bring down the ship. The Mets on the other hand are struggling, and figured the move for Francouer probably wouldn&#8217;t hurt them, might help them this year, and has a pretty good chance to help them in the future. Sometimes rolling the dice pays off.</p>
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