If anything these past few days have reaffirmed what I wrote a few days ago–If someone is going to beat the Yankees, it’s going to be the Phillies. The Yankees handedly won game 1, but games 2 and 3 were extra-inning affairs that could have gone both ways, and that’s exactly what the Angels need. Think about if the Angels hadn’t made a few clueless errors in this series. They could easily be up 2-1 right now. Unfortunately, despite their win it seems to me it will probably be too little, too late. Facing C.C. Sabathia is not the sort of pitcher they want to face. You never know, but I think they said it right on Baseball Tonight recently (it was either Fernando Vina or Buster Olney) who said the Angels just seem a little bit intimitaded of the Yankees. A little scared. They need to play the same way they did during the season to continue their success now.

But I’ll tell you who won’t be scared of the Yankees: The Phillies. The Phils have been there before, last year in fact, but they still won’t be favorites in a Phillies-Yankees World Series. They have the Lee and Hamels and Martinez (and Happ too), and they have the lineup to match it. But they also have grit, and they showed that tonight. Any team that’s going to win a World Series needs a bit of that magic and fire, and no doubt the Phillies have got it. So while I wouldn’t favor the Phils heading into the Bronx, I certainly wouldn’t count on them backing down.

Here’s what I don’t want to happen: A Yankees/Dodgers World Series. Sure the Joe Torre storyline would be nice for the media, but I just don’t see it panning out into a good series, which is all I can hope for now that my team has been eliminated (well, that and the Yankees not losing, so this would really be a double whammy).

The Yankees have an unbelievable lineup. It’s an All-Star team, it really is. And they’ve been that way pretty much this entire decade, but this year they have the pitching to back it up, and not just in the rotation. So while teams with a good offense might be able to pick up a few runs here and there, they can’t count on the run support they relied on throughout the regular season. So the pressure switches to the pitcher. In order to beat the Yankees (well, beat them four times at least) you have to be able to shutdown that offense, and while there are no pitchers in the postseason (or the world) that can definitively do that, so you have to rely on guys that have shutdown potential and that’s really all you can ask for. And for me, the Dodgers really only have one player that fits the bill: Clayton Kershaw. He struggled last night, but we all have seen his stuff when he is on and it could be enough to stifle the Yankees. The problem for the Dodgers is, he probably is their only pitcher who can do that to the Yankees for a good six or seven innings. Sure, Randy Wolf has been good, but his start in the NLDS wasn’t encouraging, and his .256 BABIP in the regular season, compared to his .290 career average, suggests his 3.23 ERA might have been a bit flukey (I’m not a huge fan of determining “luck” based on BABIP, as I’ve written before, but it’s still a factor).

The Phillies are a different story. We all know Cliff Lee has experience being just downright filthy in both the American and National league, so we’ll count him in. Similarly, Cole Hamels in the 2008 playoffs has proven himself, so while I wouldn’t necessarily mark him down as the best starter in the playoffs, he could be unbelievable. And let’s not forget Pedro Martinez. He is one of the absolute best pitchers in our generation, and he has had success pitching without his old velocity.

I know, I know, the Yankees haven’t even played a game against the Angels. And the Angels are good, no question. Jered Weaver and John Lackey fit the type I’m talking about. But for whatever reason, I’ve got more faith in the Phillies, though in truth I couldn’t tell you why. Despite all of this, I think the Yankees have the odds stacked in their favor, and that’s all you can hope for at this point.

NLCS: Phillies in 6

ALCS: Yankees in 6

World Series: Yankees in 6

Anyway, the point I’m trying to make here is that if the Cardinals and Red Sox can win their game 3 matchups, they have a better than average chance at staging a comeback; “Better than average” just seemed to long a phrase to put in a headline.

The reason for this assertion is that while both teams’ offenses have struggled, their top-two arms have been and are fantastic, and that is an incredible resource to have. Even though the No. 1 starter would be going on short rest, any team that gets to start Chris Carpenter or Jon Lester is at a distinct advantage. And once the series is evened-up, anything can happen. And anything can especially happen when Adam Wainwright or Josh Beckett is on the hill.

The Cardinals are certainly in a better spot than the Red Sox, because the Dodgers really don’t have a comparable ace to match Carpenter or Wainwright, so if they can squeeze through the Pineiro game I like their odds. The Red Sox have a tougher road. Jon Lackey will at least start one of the games, and depending on what Mike Sciosia wants to do, either Ervin Santana or Jered Weaver will be starting the other. The Red Sox also have a tougher task because Scott Kazmir, a Red Sox killer, is starting game 3 against Clay Buchholz, who has pitched very poorly his last two starts after a number of very impressive ones.

Offense is going to be the key for both teams in game 3. Their lineups are going to have to wakeup from their daze (and even though Matt Holliday has been hitting, he’s going to have to make up for his costly error with his bat) and win a ballgame for their pitchers.

If the Cards win game 3, I give them a 50/50 shot at the series. If the Red Sox win game 3, its more like a 33/67 scenario, but it’s been done before…

Now, there are some close races. The Red Sox are 2.5 games up on the Rangers in the AL wild card. The Angels are 3.5 up on Texas in the AL West. But decent logic suggests that the Red Sox and Angels will both pull away from the Rangers, due to the fact that those two teams have a little more talent and a lot more experience than the Rangers. It’s not that either race would be impossible for the Rangers to catch up in, I just don’t see it happening. Likewise, I don’t see the Twins catching the Tigers, nor do I think the Rockies or Giants can make up the five games they need on the Dodgers. And the distance the Cardinals have put between themselves and everyone else is absolutely incredible.

But at the very least, the NL wild card should provide the necessary sparks that September usually does. And don’t think this is just the Giants and Rockies either, the Braves and Marlins are still in play. I actually think the Marlins have a better shot than the Braves at catching the two frontrunners, because their pitching always has potential to improve, even in September. But even still, I think it’s going to come down to the Rocks and Giants, and if I had to make a call my gut has got to go Giants. Even though Tim Lincecum was outpitched by Pedro Martinez tonight, the combo of him and Matt Cain (and Jonathan Sanchez too!) will be too much in this last month for the Rockies to hang on. It will be close, but still I see San Francisco in the playoffs.

So without further ado, I present the Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers and Giants: your 2009 MLB playoff teams.

Realistically, the Rays probably didn’t want to make this move. The fact is that they are in playoff contention now, and they know they have the ability to perform deep into the playoffs. Despite Kazmir’s poor performance (8-7, 5.92 ERA) I don’t think anyone doubts that he still has the ability to show off his talent. Kazmir is still young, and brilliance that has been seen in him in the past is likely to arise again in the future. But clearly, his contract was going to be an issue for the Rays, and given his poor work this season, it just wasn’t worth the expensive risk for the Rays to keep him around. As Buster Olney said today on ESPN, it may be the absence of Kazmir’s salary that will allow the Rays to hang onto Carl Crawford this offseason.

For the Angels the deal is good for all of the reasons the Rays would have wanted to keep Kazmir. He has improved of late, and is a proven Red Sox-killer, which is something the Angels have seriously lacked in the playoffs this decade.

Maybe most important of all, Kazmir’s career could really take a turn for the better here. While he said he was a little disappointed to leave Tampa Bay, the kind of rut he was in generally calls for a change of scenery. While he still is in the AL, he probably will find the AL West to have weaker hitters than the brutal Eastern Division, so his stats might catch a break as well.

4:04 p.m. Joel Sherman pointed out via twitter that the Jays were only going to move Rolen if Halladay was traded.

4:07 p.m. ESPN says Jays and Angels are in discussion over Halladay

4:26 p.m. Halladay rumors are false. He’s staying in Toronto.

4:36 p.m. I wrote this in the post below, but the Red Sox made a last second attempt at Halladay, but the deal fell apart because Red Sox would not give up Buchholz and Bard.

At 4:21, Jon Heyman posts on Twitter that Jake Peavy has been traded to the White Sox…again! I’m assuming this time Peavy has waived his no-trade clause?

A couple minutes later he confirmed it’s no joke.

4:29 p.m. SI.com reports that Peavy must still agree to deal, suggesting it hasn’t happened yet. Can’t imagine the Padres would have done it if Peavy wasn’t going to accept but who knows.

4:38 p.m. Peavy accepted the White Sox…he’s going to ChiTown.

4:39 p.m. Debate rages about whether Peavy is done for the year and how much the Padres are paying, but no one knows either.

So first, let’s take a look at things from the Jays’ perspective. Number one, they haven’t committed to anything, so it’s not like Halladay is walking out the door. Rather, and quite wisely, Ricciardi is saying its a possibility they will trade him, and they want to see what they might get in return. But what really is happening here is that the team is at a bit of a crossroads, and whatever decision they make now is going to change things in the future. If they do decide to let go of Halladay, at the minimum what they are saying is that the team is surrendering on winning on ‘09 and ‘10 already, basically. If they thought they could win in 2010, they would keep Halladay, but that is going to be a long shot in the AL East, a real long shot. But what they could accomplish after that could be a lot. Say they pick up a few prime (not very top-tier, but multiple second-tier guys that will be solid ballplayers) prospects in return for Halladay. If they trade Rios, too, they’ll get even more. They’ll be in full force in two years, and will combine well with the young Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, etc. Also, hopefully for the Jays, some of the young pitching, (i.e. Tallet, Cecil) pans out. At that point, the team could be dangerous. The only downside to that plan is that is right about the time that Baltimore is ready to breakout as well, which means we could very well see five strong ballclubs in the AL East in 2010.

Now on the other hand, Ricciardi might think that he wants to stick with Halladay, both because they have a shot at winning next year, and because they probably can rule out signing him as a free agent after 2010 if they deal him now. If they hang onto him, he might want to stick in Toronto, especially if they’re going to be a winning ballclub. Now I personally wouldn’t want to hedge my bets on what would be a 34-year old pitcher at that point, but it might come down to Ricciardi simply not getting the right offer.

On the flip side, who might interested in Halladay’s services for the next year and a half? Well, everyone. But it’s not realistic for everyone. Actually, what we’re probably going to find is that the team’s that were in the Jake Peavy hunt earlier this year are the same teams who are capable of nabbing Halladay. These are winning teams with something in the farm system that also have money to spend. Both Chicago teams fit the bill, count them in. So do the Phillies. And the Angels. And the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets. Now to narrow it down.

The press has been saying that the Yankees will not be getting Halladay, though I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang around the talks. The Jays would prefer not to send him to their own division, but I don’t know if that’s such a big deal, because they are already giving up on the time when Halladay is under contract for, and while he may stay longer, that’s a ways away. So I’m going to keep the Red Sox as a possible team. The Cubs situation depends on how quickly they can figure out their new ownership deal, and whether Jim Hendry can spend money, which he probably won’t be able to, so I don’t know if that’s likely. I don’t know if Halladay would approve a deal to the south-side, so that puts the White Sox chances a little lower. Same for LA, but I think he would probably go there, and the Angels are good. I would bet they will pursue him heavily. Philadelphia is being called the favorite, and rightfully so, they have the prospects and the money, so don’t be surprised if you see a last-minute deal firing Halladay off to Philly before the month is up, although I don’t think the Halos will go down without a fight.

AL East

Current Leader: New York Yankees

Division Winner: Tampa Bay

The Rays are still my pick to win the AL East despite being back 5 games at the moment. Mariano Rivera’s age will stop the Yankees from winning a few games, which will be costly in the long run. The Rays need to pick someone up to enhance their bullpen, but David Price is only going to get better and better and so will the rest of the rotation. Jeff Niemann has proved fairly reliable and if Kazmir can recover from his injury and remember how to pitch well they will have an excellent rotation. I see Boston beating out New York for the wild card after they make a couple moves to get a better defensive shortstop (Jack Wilson?) and a hitter to replace Ortiz. Toronto will fall out of it. Their rookie pitchers will be good soon, but not yet, the flashes of brilliance we saw in the beginning were exactly that, flashes. Aaron Hill is for real though.

AL Central

Current Leader: Detroit

Division Winner: Detroit

Detroit is going to win this division by default. The Royals semi-hot start has dropped off, and probably won’t be reinvigorated until next season. The White Sox would have been contenders had they completed the deal for Peavy, but they didn’t, and I can’t see them recovering. The Twins are the only team that has a shot here I think, and it rests on Francisco Liriano’s left arm. If Liriano can be as great as he was a couple years ago, the Twins can challenge, though I still don’t know if they would catch the Tigers. Cleveland will do nothing except deal Carl Pavano to a team that will almost certainly regret it.

AL West

Current Leader: Texas

Division Winner: Los Angeles Angels

Yeah I know, I would rather have Texas win too, it would be nice to get some new blood into the playoffs. But unfortunately, the Angels are still a dangerous club. Kelvim Escobar just came back from injury and had a good first start. Not to mention the team was hurting without Vladimir Guerrero and John Lackey. Once they get back their A-game, which they will, the Angels will pull away a little bit. Oakland’s young pitchers won’t be good enough, and the Mariners just aren’t good enough, even with Erik Bedard having a very good year.

NL East

Current Leader: Philadelphia

Division Winner: New York Mets

I really wanted to give it to Atlanta actually, and could see it happening too, but they will need luck on their side. The Nate McLouth trade definitely helps their cause though. The Mets just have too much talent, despite history working against them. The Phillies need to figure out their closer situation, and fast, because Brad Lidge is self-destructing and its getting ugly. I like the Fish and I think they have a lot of potential. I am going to make an early prediction that they win this division next year with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller and Ricky Nolasco leading the way.

NL Central

Current Leader: Milwaukee

Division Winner: St. Louis

I actually already wrote about this division in a more in-depth post very recently, you can see it here.

NL West

Current Leader: Los Angeles Dodgers

Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

Really a no-brainer here. The Dodgers are playing great baseball, even without Manny Ramirez. Billingsley is pitching great and Juan Pierre is filling in very well, which means the Dodgers can use him in an upgraded role even when Ramirez returns. The rest of the division is floundering. Arizona is missing Webb, the Padres and Rockies don’t have the talent, and the Giants are recovering from last year, but it won’t be enough.

When a player like Peavy is being surrounded by rumors its usually because they are in the final year of their contract and they play for a crappy team. While San Diego is not going to make the playoffs, Peavy is contracted through 2012. So it is a little strange that so soon after granting a contract extension in ‘07, and without any decline in production, the Friars want to rid themselves of Peavy. Most teams would rather hang on to him and build their franchise around him, but I guess the Padres just want to rebuild their franchise, period. That means they are looking for a team to pick up at least the majority of the $53 million they owe Peavy between 2010 and 2012. More or less, they need a team who has prospects to trade and money to spend. Yes, the Cubs are still the frontrunner, and the Dodgers can meet both criteria as well. But I want to suggest two teams that I haven’t heard in the media in relation to Peavy. The Angels and Red Sox.

The Angels, the regular favorite of the AL West look to almost certainly surrender the division this year unless they do something about it, and Peavy would really be doing something about it. They are a wealthy club, and have some money to spend (after striking out in the Teixeira sweepstakes). I could see a deal where they pay almost all of Peavy’s contract and give up infield prospect Brandon Wood, who is mostly stuck in their franchise anyway.

The Red Sox don’t really need pitching. They don’t need it at all actually, and are trying to trade Brad Penny for a regular shortstop because they have enough depth with Smoltz coming back and Clay Buchholz dominating in triple-A. But if they were to say trade Buchholz (and again use money tagged for Teixeira) to nab Peavy, you are looking at sure-fire spot in the playoffs, and the most ridiculous playoff rotation ever of Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy and Jon Lester. Daisuke, Smoltz and Wakefield would work the ‘pen. You wouldn’t even need a bullpen, you could just pair up one of the second three with the first three and you’d have a great complete game every time. It’s not going to happen, but that’s about as close to a World Series guarantee as you’re gonna find.

Note: Credit Cot’s Baseball Contracts for all of the contract info