Here’s what I don’t want to happen: A Yankees/Dodgers World Series. Sure the Joe Torre storyline would be nice for the media, but I just don’t see it panning out into a good series, which is all I can hope for now that my team has been eliminated (well, that and the Yankees not losing, so this would really be a double whammy).

The Yankees have an unbelievable lineup. It’s an All-Star team, it really is. And they’ve been that way pretty much this entire decade, but this year they have the pitching to back it up, and not just in the rotation. So while teams with a good offense might be able to pick up a few runs here and there, they can’t count on the run support they relied on throughout the regular season. So the pressure switches to the pitcher. In order to beat the Yankees (well, beat them four times at least) you have to be able to shutdown that offense, and while there are no pitchers in the postseason (or the world) that can definitively do that, so you have to rely on guys that have shutdown potential and that’s really all you can ask for. And for me, the Dodgers really only have one player that fits the bill: Clayton Kershaw. He struggled last night, but we all have seen his stuff when he is on and it could be enough to stifle the Yankees. The problem for the Dodgers is, he probably is their only pitcher who can do that to the Yankees for a good six or seven innings. Sure, Randy Wolf has been good, but his start in the NLDS wasn’t encouraging, and his .256 BABIP in the regular season, compared to his .290 career average, suggests his 3.23 ERA might have been a bit flukey (I’m not a huge fan of determining “luck” based on BABIP, as I’ve written before, but it’s still a factor).

The Phillies are a different story. We all know Cliff Lee has experience being just downright filthy in both the American and National league, so we’ll count him in. Similarly, Cole Hamels in the 2008 playoffs has proven himself, so while I wouldn’t necessarily mark him down as the best starter in the playoffs, he could be unbelievable. And let’s not forget Pedro Martinez. He is one of the absolute best pitchers in our generation, and he has had success pitching without his old velocity.

I know, I know, the Yankees haven’t even played a game against the Angels. And the Angels are good, no question. Jered Weaver and John Lackey fit the type I’m talking about. But for whatever reason, I’ve got more faith in the Phillies, though in truth I couldn’t tell you why. Despite all of this, I think the Yankees have the odds stacked in their favor, and that’s all you can hope for at this point.

NLCS: Phillies in 6

ALCS: Yankees in 6

World Series: Yankees in 6

Anyway, the point I’m trying to make here is that if the Cardinals and Red Sox can win their game 3 matchups, they have a better than average chance at staging a comeback; “Better than average” just seemed to long a phrase to put in a headline.

The reason for this assertion is that while both teams’ offenses have struggled, their top-two arms have been and are fantastic, and that is an incredible resource to have. Even though the No. 1 starter would be going on short rest, any team that gets to start Chris Carpenter or Jon Lester is at a distinct advantage. And once the series is evened-up, anything can happen. And anything can especially happen when Adam Wainwright or Josh Beckett is on the hill.

The Cardinals are certainly in a better spot than the Red Sox, because the Dodgers really don’t have a comparable ace to match Carpenter or Wainwright, so if they can squeeze through the Pineiro game I like their odds. The Red Sox have a tougher road. Jon Lackey will at least start one of the games, and depending on what Mike Sciosia wants to do, either Ervin Santana or Jered Weaver will be starting the other. The Red Sox also have a tougher task because Scott Kazmir, a Red Sox killer, is starting game 3 against Clay Buchholz, who has pitched very poorly his last two starts after a number of very impressive ones.

Offense is going to be the key for both teams in game 3. Their lineups are going to have to wakeup from their daze (and even though Matt Holliday has been hitting, he’s going to have to make up for his costly error with his bat) and win a ballgame for their pitchers.

If the Cards win game 3, I give them a 50/50 shot at the series. If the Red Sox win game 3, its more like a 33/67 scenario, but it’s been done before…

The lead story is that there are unconfirmed reports that Orioles reliever George Sherrill has been traded to the Dodgers. Apparently the Orioles are seeking something like Josh Bell in return. This makes sense, the Dodgers have been talking to the O’s about Sherrill for a few days, and need at least one more reliever.

In other news, the Reds have been talking about acquiring Scott Rolen from the Blue Jays for several days and things were progressing. Now it appears that the talks are dead and that we can probably rule out Rolen heading to Cincy.

The Red Sox and Padres apparently had lengthy discussions regarding Adrian Gonzalez yesterday. I’m assuming that Gonzalez is the Red Sox first choice of all of their trade targets (over Halladay and Victor Martinez) because he is young, has years left on his contract, has power, and is a good fielding first basemen. It’s a move that would be good for this season and beyond (Kevin Youkilis would likely become a more permanent third basemen).

In other Padres news, the Marlins are looking to acquire Heath Bell from the Friars. This news comes after the failure of the Marlins’ surprising attempt at trading for Roy Halladay.

The Mariners have said they will not be trading Jarrod Washburn, so the rumors linking him to the Yankees or Brewers can now be considered dead.

Things are silent with regards to Halladay, more and more expect he’ll stay in Toronto. I’ll keep updates coming.

AL East

Current Leader: New York Yankees

Division Winner: Tampa Bay

The Rays are still my pick to win the AL East despite being back 5 games at the moment. Mariano Rivera’s age will stop the Yankees from winning a few games, which will be costly in the long run. The Rays need to pick someone up to enhance their bullpen, but David Price is only going to get better and better and so will the rest of the rotation. Jeff Niemann has proved fairly reliable and if Kazmir can recover from his injury and remember how to pitch well they will have an excellent rotation. I see Boston beating out New York for the wild card after they make a couple moves to get a better defensive shortstop (Jack Wilson?) and a hitter to replace Ortiz. Toronto will fall out of it. Their rookie pitchers will be good soon, but not yet, the flashes of brilliance we saw in the beginning were exactly that, flashes. Aaron Hill is for real though.

AL Central

Current Leader: Detroit

Division Winner: Detroit

Detroit is going to win this division by default. The Royals semi-hot start has dropped off, and probably won’t be reinvigorated until next season. The White Sox would have been contenders had they completed the deal for Peavy, but they didn’t, and I can’t see them recovering. The Twins are the only team that has a shot here I think, and it rests on Francisco Liriano’s left arm. If Liriano can be as great as he was a couple years ago, the Twins can challenge, though I still don’t know if they would catch the Tigers. Cleveland will do nothing except deal Carl Pavano to a team that will almost certainly regret it.

AL West

Current Leader: Texas

Division Winner: Los Angeles Angels

Yeah I know, I would rather have Texas win too, it would be nice to get some new blood into the playoffs. But unfortunately, the Angels are still a dangerous club. Kelvim Escobar just came back from injury and had a good first start. Not to mention the team was hurting without Vladimir Guerrero and John Lackey. Once they get back their A-game, which they will, the Angels will pull away a little bit. Oakland’s young pitchers won’t be good enough, and the Mariners just aren’t good enough, even with Erik Bedard having a very good year.

NL East

Current Leader: Philadelphia

Division Winner: New York Mets

I really wanted to give it to Atlanta actually, and could see it happening too, but they will need luck on their side. The Nate McLouth trade definitely helps their cause though. The Mets just have too much talent, despite history working against them. The Phillies need to figure out their closer situation, and fast, because Brad Lidge is self-destructing and its getting ugly. I like the Fish and I think they have a lot of potential. I am going to make an early prediction that they win this division next year with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller and Ricky Nolasco leading the way.

NL Central

Current Leader: Milwaukee

Division Winner: St. Louis

I actually already wrote about this division in a more in-depth post very recently, you can see it here.

NL West

Current Leader: Los Angeles Dodgers

Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

Really a no-brainer here. The Dodgers are playing great baseball, even without Manny Ramirez. Billingsley is pitching great and Juan Pierre is filling in very well, which means the Dodgers can use him in an upgraded role even when Ramirez returns. The rest of the division is floundering. Arizona is missing Webb, the Padres and Rockies don’t have the talent, and the Giants are recovering from last year, but it won’t be enough.