If anything these past few days have reaffirmed what I wrote a few days ago–If someone is going to beat the Yankees, it’s going to be the Phillies. The Yankees handedly won game 1, but games 2 and 3 were extra-inning affairs that could have gone both ways, and that’s exactly what the Angels need. Think about if the Angels hadn’t made a few clueless errors in this series. They could easily be up 2-1 right now. Unfortunately, despite their win it seems to me it will probably be too little, too late. Facing C.C. Sabathia is not the sort of pitcher they want to face. You never know, but I think they said it right on Baseball Tonight recently (it was either Fernando Vina or Buster Olney) who said the Angels just seem a little bit intimitaded of the Yankees. A little scared. They need to play the same way they did during the season to continue their success now.

But I’ll tell you who won’t be scared of the Yankees: The Phillies. The Phils have been there before, last year in fact, but they still won’t be favorites in a Phillies-Yankees World Series. They have the Lee and Hamels and Martinez (and Happ too), and they have the lineup to match it. But they also have grit, and they showed that tonight. Any team that’s going to win a World Series needs a bit of that magic and fire, and no doubt the Phillies have got it. So while I wouldn’t favor the Phils heading into the Bronx, I certainly wouldn’t count on them backing down.

Here’s what I don’t want to happen: A Yankees/Dodgers World Series. Sure the Joe Torre storyline would be nice for the media, but I just don’t see it panning out into a good series, which is all I can hope for now that my team has been eliminated (well, that and the Yankees not losing, so this would really be a double whammy).

The Yankees have an unbelievable lineup. It’s an All-Star team, it really is. And they’ve been that way pretty much this entire decade, but this year they have the pitching to back it up, and not just in the rotation. So while teams with a good offense might be able to pick up a few runs here and there, they can’t count on the run support they relied on throughout the regular season. So the pressure switches to the pitcher. In order to beat the Yankees (well, beat them four times at least) you have to be able to shutdown that offense, and while there are no pitchers in the postseason (or the world) that can definitively do that, so you have to rely on guys that have shutdown potential and that’s really all you can ask for. And for me, the Dodgers really only have one player that fits the bill: Clayton Kershaw. He struggled last night, but we all have seen his stuff when he is on and it could be enough to stifle the Yankees. The problem for the Dodgers is, he probably is their only pitcher who can do that to the Yankees for a good six or seven innings. Sure, Randy Wolf has been good, but his start in the NLDS wasn’t encouraging, and his .256 BABIP in the regular season, compared to his .290 career average, suggests his 3.23 ERA might have been a bit flukey (I’m not a huge fan of determining “luck” based on BABIP, as I’ve written before, but it’s still a factor).

The Phillies are a different story. We all know Cliff Lee has experience being just downright filthy in both the American and National league, so we’ll count him in. Similarly, Cole Hamels in the 2008 playoffs has proven himself, so while I wouldn’t necessarily mark him down as the best starter in the playoffs, he could be unbelievable. And let’s not forget Pedro Martinez. He is one of the absolute best pitchers in our generation, and he has had success pitching without his old velocity.

I know, I know, the Yankees haven’t even played a game against the Angels. And the Angels are good, no question. Jered Weaver and John Lackey fit the type I’m talking about. But for whatever reason, I’ve got more faith in the Phillies, though in truth I couldn’t tell you why. Despite all of this, I think the Yankees have the odds stacked in their favor, and that’s all you can hope for at this point.

NLCS: Phillies in 6

ALCS: Yankees in 6

World Series: Yankees in 6

Under the terms of the agreement, the Phillies receive Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco from the Indians in exchange for prospects Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, as well as Jason Donald and Lou Marson. The key for the Phillies was not including their prized prospect, Kyle Drabek. No cash will be exchanged in the deal.

Rosenthal and Morosi say the deal is great for both sides, as the Phillies get a much needed starting pitcher, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner no less, as well as Francisco who can be a solid substitute. The Indians get a plethora of prospects, which is exactly what they were looking for if they were going to trade Lee.

Obviously, this has ramifications for other deals. Specifically, this hurts the Blue Jays bargaining position by quite a bit. The Phillies were the previous favorites for obtaining Halladay, and now that they are out of the race, it leaves Boston as the sole frontrunner, with the Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers and Angels with outside shots. Even worse for the Jays is that since the Indians have decided to get rid of Lee, it makes it easier for them to part with Victor Martinez too, who’s main suitor is, coincidentally, the Red Sox. So while the Jays still retain the best player on the trading block, they’ve lost a lot of their chips. If they really want to make a deal, don’t be surprised to them take the offer from Boston that they previously rejected.

In other news, the Mariners and Pirates swapped some players. Instead of being a seller, the Mariners actually were buyers this time around, picking up defensive shortstop Jack Wilson from Bucs in exchange for some minor league talent. The consensus is that the M’s will pick up Wilson’s club option, worth around $8 million, which the Pirates would not have been able to do. The Pirates also are on the verge of trading Freddy Sanchez to the Giants.

Therefore, it’s always best to start at the top, and that, of course, means Roy Halladay. J.P. Ricciardi said today that the likelihood of a deal has moved to “very slim.” Still interested teams are the Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox. The holdup has been that the team most capable and needing of a deal, the Phillies, rejected the Blue Jays original offer which included Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ, and then had their counter-offer (Happ plus four prospects not named Drabek) rejected as well, putting the parties at odds. The Rangers are still interested but have financial issues to worry about if they are going to get Halladay. If the Yankees want to make a deal they can try the route of taking on bad contracts (Vernon Wells) and Halladay instead of giving up top prospects, because they don’t have any really. They have said they will part with Joba Chamberlain, but not Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. If I’m the Jays, I forget about the division rivalry and send him to the Yanks, and then ship off Rolen, Scutaro and Rios if you can.

If Halladay is out of the picture, the focus turns to other pitchers on the market. The next-best being Cliff Lee. The Red Sox and Yankees don’t really need to overpay for Lee, but the Phillies and Rangers have said they are interested if they can’t get Halladay, and the Dodgers are increasingly interested since they feel like a Halladay deal isn’t going to happen. Interestingly, the Rays seem to be the biggest players for Lee, which is somewhat surprising considering how money-concious they are. It would put them in a better place to fight off either the Red Sox or Yankees for a playoff spot. Apparently, if a Rays deal for Lee is pulled off, it would be a three-way deal involving the Mariners.

The Mariners have their own players they may be selling in Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn. Bedard has drawn interest from the Phillies, probably more so than their interest in Lee. Obviously the cost for him has gone down. Bedard is an effective when he wants to be (it’s a contract year, so let’s say that’s a yes) and when he’s healthy. He conveniently enough just landed himself on the DL, bringing his value down. But if the M’s are still willing to deal him, he might be a lower-cost alternative that could pay off. Washburn has had a good season and the Brewers may be after him, as are the Yankees. I could see the Rangers and Rays going for him as well if they can’t land a bigger fish.

The Red Sox had two deals rejected for Victor Martinez. First was basically a straight-up deal for Clay Buchholz and the second was for Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden. I really don’t understand this. It doesn’t really seem like a great idea to give up such good prospects for a guy like Martinez who is iffy health-wise, but even if you’re going to, the Adam LaRoche deal makes no sense then. Furthermore, why would the Indians ever say no to either of these deals? They’re getting great prospects, with Buchholz being the Red Sox top prospect (considering Lars Anderson’s recent struggles). The Red Sox, among other teams, have also indicated an interest in Padres first basemen Adrian Gonzalez but it doesn’t look promising. Again, why get LaRoche if you want a bigger first basemen bat?

Lastly, the Twins are almost definitely going to make a deal for a new shortstop, as Nick Punto isn’t going to cut it. A’s shortstop Orlando Cabrera and Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson seem to be the top candidates. Either one would make sense. Marco Scutaro of the Blue Jays is also an option.

The fact that things have progressed this far is a pretty good indicator of a question central to this deal: Will Pedro be willing to pitch out of the bullpen for the Phillies? Considering the way things are going, he has probably told them that yes; he doesn’t need to be a guaranteed starter to want to play. If Martinez truly wants to play, he’ll realize that his role now is most likely as a reliever and will embrace it.

The Phillies need pitching, no question about it. They have a team ERA of 4.61, 25th in the majors, and if they want to fend off the Marlins, Mets and Braves are going to need to add arm(s). Why Pedro? Well, he could be one of the best options out there. He won’t be particularly expensive, and since he’s a free agent, they won’t have to give up any of their future stock to get him. There are other relievers on the market, but Pedro may be just as good as most of them. No doubting Martinez had a rough year last season, going 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 20 games for the Mets, but given a smaller sample size, he might be able to have some success. If Pedro is pitching only relief innings for half the season, he may be able to concentrate his abilities into those outings and be more productive. It’s not a definite, but certainly a possibility as Martinez is 37-years old, which is old, but not that old.

Furthermore, Pedro is going to have to refine his game a little bit. Once a power pitcher, Pedro is going to have to change his approach, something that other supreme pitchers have had some success doing. In 2008, Pedro threw 60 percent fastballs, and 17 percent changeups, the most of any of his secondary pitches. Pedro’s changeup is and was his signature pitch, but its effectiveness is curtailed by the lack of velocity on his fastball. 60 percent is not too bad, but he’s going to have lower his usage on his fastball, and much more importantly, learn to use his slider and curveball as out-pitches if this move is going to pay off for the Phils.

To me, I think the whole thing is hilarious, and great, for baseball. Suddenly this world of politics which is so deamonized and stereotyped as boring makes its way into America’s Pasttime, and everyone loves it. Shane Victorino took it like a political campaign, and actually went door-to-door with the mayor of Philadelphia reminding people to vote for the Flyin’ Hawaiian. It’s pretty nice to see how much players care. Easily the best part of the whole thing was the teaming up of two camps to create the “Bran-Torino” ballot. Firstly, it was clever, and second it was just smart. Even though I didn’t have any player that I was particularly passionate about helping out, I wanted to see Pablo Sandoval go to St. Louis. But every time I voted for him, I also voted for Brandon Inge, and at the time I thought, wow, the Inge people should get every Sandoval fan to vote for them, and vice-versa. Low and behold, someone did it, albeit with Victorino. Major kudos to whoever executed that plan.

Now, originally, I was going to finish this bit up with why Sandoval deserved the All-Star Game more than Victorino, but really, it’s a complete toss-up, I just happen to like one guy better. Yes, Sandoval has 13 HRs to Victorino’s 6, he’s got a higher batting average by 20 points, more RBIs. But then again, Victorino has speed, he’s got 15 thefts to Sandoval’s mere three, he also has a much better K/BB ratio, so while he has a lower average, their OBP is almost the same. Plus Victorino has been a key player for the Phillies both in this season and their World Series run. So while ESPN may have totally fixed the vote by putting Victorino on SportsCenter for a 10-minute spot, at the end of the day, the guy really deserves to be there.

So first, let’s take a look at things from the Jays’ perspective. Number one, they haven’t committed to anything, so it’s not like Halladay is walking out the door. Rather, and quite wisely, Ricciardi is saying its a possibility they will trade him, and they want to see what they might get in return. But what really is happening here is that the team is at a bit of a crossroads, and whatever decision they make now is going to change things in the future. If they do decide to let go of Halladay, at the minimum what they are saying is that the team is surrendering on winning on ‘09 and ‘10 already, basically. If they thought they could win in 2010, they would keep Halladay, but that is going to be a long shot in the AL East, a real long shot. But what they could accomplish after that could be a lot. Say they pick up a few prime (not very top-tier, but multiple second-tier guys that will be solid ballplayers) prospects in return for Halladay. If they trade Rios, too, they’ll get even more. They’ll be in full force in two years, and will combine well with the young Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, etc. Also, hopefully for the Jays, some of the young pitching, (i.e. Tallet, Cecil) pans out. At that point, the team could be dangerous. The only downside to that plan is that is right about the time that Baltimore is ready to breakout as well, which means we could very well see five strong ballclubs in the AL East in 2010.

Now on the other hand, Ricciardi might think that he wants to stick with Halladay, both because they have a shot at winning next year, and because they probably can rule out signing him as a free agent after 2010 if they deal him now. If they hang onto him, he might want to stick in Toronto, especially if they’re going to be a winning ballclub. Now I personally wouldn’t want to hedge my bets on what would be a 34-year old pitcher at that point, but it might come down to Ricciardi simply not getting the right offer.

On the flip side, who might interested in Halladay’s services for the next year and a half? Well, everyone. But it’s not realistic for everyone. Actually, what we’re probably going to find is that the team’s that were in the Jake Peavy hunt earlier this year are the same teams who are capable of nabbing Halladay. These are winning teams with something in the farm system that also have money to spend. Both Chicago teams fit the bill, count them in. So do the Phillies. And the Angels. And the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets. Now to narrow it down.

The press has been saying that the Yankees will not be getting Halladay, though I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang around the talks. The Jays would prefer not to send him to their own division, but I don’t know if that’s such a big deal, because they are already giving up on the time when Halladay is under contract for, and while he may stay longer, that’s a ways away. So I’m going to keep the Red Sox as a possible team. The Cubs situation depends on how quickly they can figure out their new ownership deal, and whether Jim Hendry can spend money, which he probably won’t be able to, so I don’t know if that’s likely. I don’t know if Halladay would approve a deal to the south-side, so that puts the White Sox chances a little lower. Same for LA, but I think he would probably go there, and the Angels are good. I would bet they will pursue him heavily. Philadelphia is being called the favorite, and rightfully so, they have the prospects and the money, so don’t be surprised if you see a last-minute deal firing Halladay off to Philly before the month is up, although I don’t think the Halos will go down without a fight.

The controversy started when an article was written at MidWestSportsFans.com in response to a comment that the site had received suggesting that the veteran has been on the juice which is why his numbers have spiked so far in ‘09. Now, don’t get me wrong, I think Ibanez is perfectly right to be upset that his name was linked to steroids in any manner. I find it particularly unfortunate that any time a player has a good season, people automatically suspect that something can’t be right. I remind everyone, before the existance of PEDs, there were breakout seasons, there were slumps, there were slow-starters, and there were guys who inexplicably were successful in their mid-to-late 30s. It happens, its natural.

But Ibanez, who attacked the blogger by saying that he was a coward who types in his mother’s basement, maybe should have taken an actual look at the article. To be fair to this “blogger,” this was exactly what he was not intending. In fact, when he set out to write the story, his mission was to find evidence that proved why Ibanez’s power surge was due to other reasons, like his new hitter-friendly ballpark etc. The fact that he ultimately realized that he would not be able to prove Ibanez was having a good season naturally by no means that the “coward” concluded that Ibanez was using steroids or any other drug. In fact, I am quite confident that the writer sincerely hopes that Ibanez is clean, and believes so himself. This may be, and most likely is, just one of those cases when a player is just seeing the ball well and its dropping in for him. So good for you Ibanez, keep up the good work, but don’t be so quick to judge.