Anyway, the point I’m trying to make here is that if the Cardinals and Red Sox can win their game 3 matchups, they have a better than average chance at staging a comeback; “Better than average” just seemed to long a phrase to put in a headline.

The reason for this assertion is that while both teams’ offenses have struggled, their top-two arms have been and are fantastic, and that is an incredible resource to have. Even though the No. 1 starter would be going on short rest, any team that gets to start Chris Carpenter or Jon Lester is at a distinct advantage. And once the series is evened-up, anything can happen. And anything can especially happen when Adam Wainwright or Josh Beckett is on the hill.

The Cardinals are certainly in a better spot than the Red Sox, because the Dodgers really don’t have a comparable ace to match Carpenter or Wainwright, so if they can squeeze through the Pineiro game I like their odds. The Red Sox have a tougher road. Jon Lackey will at least start one of the games, and depending on what Mike Sciosia wants to do, either Ervin Santana or Jered Weaver will be starting the other. The Red Sox also have a tougher task because Scott Kazmir, a Red Sox killer, is starting game 3 against Clay Buchholz, who has pitched very poorly his last two starts after a number of very impressive ones.

Offense is going to be the key for both teams in game 3. Their lineups are going to have to wakeup from their daze (and even though Matt Holliday has been hitting, he’s going to have to make up for his costly error with his bat) and win a ballgame for their pitchers.

If the Cards win game 3, I give them a 50/50 shot at the series. If the Red Sox win game 3, its more like a 33/67 scenario, but it’s been done before…

In a hotly-contested NL Central, however, the playoffs were no sure thing, so this was the right move for the Cards, boosting their lineup and giving them some extra power. Maybe more important however, is getting some production into the cleanup spot of the Cardinals lineup, where they rank 12th in the National League in OPS. It’s incredible that Albert Pujols has had the season he has had considering the lack of a threat behind him. Expect Pujols to continue to rake for the rest of the season, as he should see more balls fly into the zone.

So what does that mean? Well, probably fewer walks…and a higher batting average, the lone category of the Triple Crown that he needs to pick up the pace in to win the triple crown. This is literally the best thing that could happen to improve Pujols’ chances of winning the crown (other than Hanley Ramirez going 0-100…).

In the grand scheme of things, this move may work out for the Cardinals, or it may not. If they win the World Series, then certainly the move was worth it. If they don’t, and Holliday rejects arbitration (quite likely, considering he is a Boras client), and they lose him, and Brett Wallace becomes a stud third basemen, then it probably wasn’t. But those are a lot of “and’s.” Way too many to say this was a bad move. It was a calculated risk by the Cardinals, and a good one at that.

Quick note on another NL Central Team: I read a good article on FanGraphs on why the Astros have been by far the luckiest team in baseball and won’t make the playoffs (titled: Houston, You Are Not Good). Best line: “Frankly I might be a bit irked as an Astros fan, all this luck is going to cost Houston a nice draft pick for their efforts.”

On the baseball front, no trades but more news. Apparently, the Cardinals are in the lead for Matt Holliday, and it looks like it might happen. This would be huge for the Cardinals who already improved their team with Mark DeRosa, but are fending off every team in their division (as usual, excluding the Pirates, but now including the Astros who just swept them!).

Mixed reports on the Red Sox, some say they aren’t done, others thinking they still might try and deal for another bat. It appears V-Mart is out of the question however, so I personally don’t see who else they are going to add. Obviously some big names like Adrian Gonzalez are floating around, but what would have the purpose of getting LaRoche been then?

On Sportscenter, Tim Kurkjian floated the idea out there that the Phillies might decide to pursue Erik Bedard instead of Roy Halladay in order to save money. This of course depends on whether or not the Mariners are going to call it quits, they are currently 5 back in the wild card.

Bad news for A-Rod, who lent his car to his girlfriend (?) Kate Hudson who didn’t exactly take care to drive safely.

ESPN is facing criticism over the fact that it failed to report that Ben Roethlisberger had been accused of rape until 48 hours after the story broke. Some are accusing the organization of racism considering its response to the way it handled similar accusations regarding other athletes.

Lastly, I don’t know if I’m the only one who finds this funny, but the Video Professor was featured on a SportsNation commercial. Watch Sportscenter and you’ll surely see it.

Diaz is a 22-year old shortstop who is struggling some in AA this season, with a lot of strikeouts. Strickland was an 18th round guy the Red Sox picked out of high school in 2007, and these past two seasons have been solid, with ERAs in the low 3s and high K/BB ratio. The Pirates did what they will probably continue to do for the next week or so, trading whatever talent they have for prospects with a potential future. The deal was a good move for both sides.

Later in the day, the Red Sox sent Julio Lugo packing to the Cards, ending his insufferable tenure in Boston. Lugo had been DFA’d by the Red Sox last week. The Sox received Chris Duncan, lefty outfielder who has had some limited success in the bigs after a long minor league career, as well as a player to be named later, or cash. The Red Sox will pay all of Lugo’s contract. Seems to me that the Red Sox did well to get this much out of the Cardinals considering that everyone in the world knows that they were getting rid of Lugo. Duncan has played well against righties in the past, though this year he is batting just .226 against them. Still, the Red Sox may use him at times as a backup for Ellsbury. Even though the Cardinals lost Duncan, they’re getting a free player in Julio Lugo, and that might not be such a bad thing for them. With Khalil Greene’s health and playing ability in question, having at least a patient hitter in Lugo is insurance for them considering the tight pennant race they’re in. The bottom line is that they get him for free, so any production he gives them will be a bonus.

.331 BA, 31 HRs, 82 RBIs, 1.184 OPS, 69 BBs, 35 Ks. Oh and 10 SBs too.

Those numbers have him ranked first in the NL in HRs, first in RBIs, and third in batting average. So can Albert Pujols win the Triple Crown. Well at the very least, he’s probably going to be closer than anyone’s come in a long time. Let’s take a look at his competition in each category.

Home Runs

If Pujols any category locked up, its this one. Pujols has 31 HRs, and tied for second with 24 is Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds. Ibanez and Dunn have 22. Each of those four guys (maybe not Ibanez) have a pretty good chance of keeping up their production for the rest of the year. That being said, none of them will catch Pujols. Say Pujols ends the season with 55, I can’t realistically see any of them coming close to that. So put this one in Albert’s bank.

RBIs

Pujols is five up on second-place Prince Fielder who has 77 RBIs. After that it drops off until you get to Ryan Howard at third with 63, followed closely by Mark Reynolds and Chase Utley. It’s going to be a two-horse race down the stretch probably, even though RBIs is the most flexible of the three stats in the sense that you can rack them up quickly…or not. Both the Cards and Brewers are going to be in the hunt down the stretch so the drive will be there. Fielder has an advantage however, because he has better hitters in Ryan Braun and J.J. Hardy in front of him, as opposed to Pujols’ having Colby Rasmus and Brendan Ryan. Basically, Pujols is probably going to have to keep his HRs up if he wants to beat out Fielder.

Batting Average

Obviously the biggest hurdle in the way of Pujols conquering the crown. Pujols (.331) trails Carlos Beltran (.336) and Hanley Ramirez (.346) in batting average, so he’s going to have to make up quite a bit of ground. I don’t know if Beltran will be able to keep up his average, particularly since he’s hurt right now. When he recovers, maintaining a .336 average is going to pretty tough. It’s Ramirez that will be more difficult for Pujols. Even though Hanley is injured right now too, he can hit, and he’s fast.

Odds

Albert is in a good position, and definitely is a legitimate contender. If you ignore the possibility of him getting injured, I give him a 20% shot at winning the Triple Crown.

The move is brilliant for the Cardinals. Firstly, they were able to pick up another strong hitter who has some pop. DeRosa hit .285 with 21 HRs for the Cubs last season, and already has 13 bombs in 2009. What’s even better for the Cards is the versatility that DeRosa brings. DeRosa is certainly an everyday player for them, but the beauty is that on a team that has been playing only mediocre recently, DeRosa allows guys to have a day off and still be filled in with a strong player. DeRosa can play second base, third base and both corner outfield positions.

It was rumored a few days ago that the Indians were in discussions with both the Cubs and Cardinals about acquiring DeRosa’s services, and at the time I wrote a comment on MLBTradeRumors that I thought the Cardinals made the most sense. The reason being is that with Troy Glaus currently coming back from injury, the Cards really don’t know exactly what to expect from him nor can they be certain of his health. DeRosa provides an insurance policy for Glaus, which will be extremely valuable if this team is trying to not just make the playoffs but go farther.

The other great part of the move is the timing. If you are picking up a guy mid-season, most likely just for that season (DeRosa will be a free agent after this year) it doesn’t always make sense to wait until the trade deadline. Cleveland knows they are out of the hunt, so they were willing to part with DeRosa now, and this way St. Louis gets an extra month of production out of him.

Lastly, this has got to hurt for the Cubbies. Not only was Chicago trying to trade for DeRosa right now, but they foolishly traded him away after last season, and are paying double the price for it now that he has ended up with the team’s biggest rival.

Perennially, the only six-team (five if you discount the Pirates) division in baseball provides a tight race in September. This year will be no different. 50 games in, it’s surprisingly the Cubs who find themselves in fourth place in this four team race between Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinatti and Chicago. Really, it’s anyone’s guess at this point, but I’ll try to break it down.

If there’s a team to eliminate here, it’s the Reds. I love the story of the youth movement taking over the Reds, with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce leading the way, but I think the lack of experience may hurt them down the road and Brandon Phillips is a little out of place in the clean-up spot. More importantly, I doubt the Reds can hold up the team 3.96 ERA its carrying right now. Cueto is sporting a mid-2 ERA at this point, which I am skeptical of, and while I like Aaron Harang, his ERA too should rise by maybe four tenths or a half point by season’s end. And even if everything else was working, we can always count on Dusty Baker to mismanage the bullpen. Earlier this week, Baker decided to throw Aaron Harang back out to the hill to pitch to one batter after a 2-hour delay just so he could qualify for the win. Good for my fantasy team, but not good for an arm.

That still leaves three teams, though I believe two of them will make the playoffs. However, I think the team left out is Chicago, despite being division favorites heading into the season. They’ve lost Aramis Ramirez for an indefinite period of time, which is not a good thing. Also, all of the complaints with umpires combined with the ownership questions have left the team in turmoil, which certainly doesn’t help a team that already is feeling the pressure. Ultimately, I see the Cubs trying to pull themselves together but falling just short.

Milwaukee, my pick to win the wild card, is being lead by Yovani Gallardo, who is now showing the greatness that he will exude for sometime. They have the core offensive ability from Hart, Braun and Fielder. In order to keep the momentum down the stretch, I would expect them to make at least one addition to either the offense or pitching, and I am making the assumption they will do so in picking them over Chicago. Even though I haven’t heard anything regarding this, I wouldn’t be surprised if they made an attempt to take advantage of Boston’s pitching surplus and trying to nab Brad Penny.

Lastly, my pick to win the division: St. Louis. Even with injuries to Chris Carpenter and Ryan Ludwick, this team is tied for the top spot in the division. Now that Carpenter’s back and pitching like his Cy Young-self, and with Ludwick back soon, this team can surprise everyone again and finish in first place in the NL Central come the end of September.

Update: I looked around for similar stories on the web to see what other people thought. I only found this one, which also has the Cards on top, though it has the Cubs at No. 2.